A COVID-19[female[feminine According to a modeling study published in Scientist Reports.
SARS-CoV-2 infections have already been identified among captive western lowland gorillas, however, the potential risk COVID-19 poses to wild monkeys, including endangered mountain gorillas, is not light.
Fernando Colchero and his colleagues simulated the likelihood that an outbreak of COVID-19 in a population of mountain gorillas living in Volcanoes National Park could lead to the collapse of this population. Using data collected between 1967 and 2018 on 396 gorillas by the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund, the authors took into account annual variations in the size and structure of this population. They also took into account epidemiological factors that influence the dynamics of COVID-19 disease in humans, including the number of individuals who contract the disease from an infected individual (R0); the likelihood of death after infection; the likelihood of developing immunity; and the duration of the immunity.
The authors performed 2,000 simulations in which the size and structure of the park’s population varied at different rates and found that under epidemiological conditions similar to those reported in human epidemics, 71% of these simulated populations s ‘would collapse in 50 years. However, the authors suggest that mortality may be higher in gorillas than in humans, due to the lower availability of treatments for gorillas. When this was factored into the model, the proportion of the 2,000 simulated populations in the park that would collapse within 50 years rose to 80%. While the average R0 COVID-19 in humans was previously found to be around 2.5, the authors found that when the R0 among gorillas was at least 1.05, the probability of population collapse increased. This demonstrates the importance of limiting the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the population.
The authors note that the tendency of groups of gorillas to naturally move away from each other socially probably decreases the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. However, this population has grown in recent years, resulting in higher rates of intergroup encounters and potentially increasing the possibilities of disease transmission.
The results highlight the risk that the COVID-19 pandemic currently poses to the mountain gorilla population of Volcanoes National Park. The authors suggest that measures to limit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, such as wearing masks and vaccinating park staff and tourists, in addition to regular testing of gorillas for possible infections, continue to be carried out. ‘be implemented in the park.
Reference: “Exploring the potential effect of COVID-19 on an endangered great ape” by Fernando Colchero, Winnie Eckardt and Tara Stoinski, October 21, 2021, Scientific reports.
DOI: 10.1038 / s41598-021-00061-8